Tinubu’s Economic Reforms at Two Years: Bold Moves, Painful Outcomes
R emoving the fuel subsidy was the easy part. Fixing what came after is where Tinubu’s presidency will be judged. On May 29, 2023, in the first sentence of his inaugural speech, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu declared: “fuel subsidy is gone.” Four words that ended a policy Nigeria had maintained for over five decades. They were also the opening shot of the most consequential — and most contested — economic reform programme in the country’s democratic history. Two years on, the results are deeply contradictory. The macroeconomic indicators have moved, some impressively. The lived reality of ordinary Nigerians remains, for many, worse than it was the day Tinubu took office. Both things are true. And holding both things simultaneously is the only honest way to assess where Nigeria stands. What the Numbers Say: Macro Gains Are Real The fiscal logic behind the reforms was always sound. The fuel subsidy was consuming between N3 trillion and N4 trillion annually — funds the gov...