Morocco vs Algeria: The Frozen Conflict Reshaping North Africa
In August 2021, Algeria severed diplomatic ties with Morocco. No
ambassadors have been exchanged since. The land border between the two
countries has been closed since 1994. In September 2024, Algeria went further
and imposed visa requirements on Moroccan citizens. Two countries that share a
1,900-kilometre border, a language, a religion, a colonial history, and a
continent have not been able to hold a serious diplomatic conversation in over
three years.[1]
The standoff is often framed as a dispute over the Western Sahara. That
framing is true but incomplete. The Western Sahara question is the trigger, the
justification, and the public face of a rivalry that runs much deeper: a
competition for regional leadership between two large, proud nations that both
believe they are the natural centre of gravity in North Africa and the Sahel.
Understanding that competition is essential to understanding North African
geopolitics, European energy security, and the future of the Sahel.
The Roots of the Rivalry
Morocco and Algeria were allies during their respective independence
struggles. They fought together, supported each other, and shared a vision of a
post-colonial North Africa. The relationship began to deteriorate almost
immediately after independence.
In 1963, just a year after Algerian independence, the two countries
fought the Sand War over disputed border territories, a conflict that left
lasting mistrust on both sides. The Western Sahara dispute, which began after
Spain withdrew from its colony in 1975, deepened the division. Morocco marched
350,000 civilians into the territory, establishing administrative control.
Algeria backed the Polisario Front, the independence movement that claims the
territory as the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. That core disagreement has
never been resolved.[2]
What has changed since 2021 is the intensity and the reach of the
competition. Both countries have increasingly used trade, energy
infrastructure, migration policy, and African diplomacy as instruments of their
rivalry, extending what was once a largely bilateral dispute into a contest
that now shapes relations from the Sahel to southern Europe.[3]
The Military Dimension: An Accelerating Arms Race
$13bn Morocco 2025 defence budget
Middle East Institute 2025. Morocco
pursuing F-35s, upgrading F-16s, acquiring HIMARS systems
$18.5bn Algeria 2025 defence budget
LSE Africa at LSE 2025. Africa's largest
military spender. Together: roughly 90% of North Africa military spending per
SIPRI
85m Combined citizens of both countries
Resources diverted to the arms race are
unavailable for development of either country's population
The numbers are striking. Morocco allocated $13 billion to defence in
2025, pursuing F-35 fighter jets, upgrading F-16s, and acquiring the HIMARS
precision-strike artillery system.[1] Algeria allocated $18.5 billion, making it
Africa's largest military spender. Together, the two countries account for
roughly 90 percent of all military spending across North Africa, according to
the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.[4]
Algeria has been Russia's top arms client in Africa for years, purchasing
Su-57 fighters, S-400 air defence systems, and multiple launch rocket systems.
Morocco, as a designated major non-NATO ally of the United States, has been
moving in the opposite direction: toward Western platforms and Israeli
technology, including armed drones that it has deployed against Polisario
positions in the Western Sahara.[5]
The arms race is not merely symbolic. It consumes resources that could be
directed toward the genuine development challenges facing both countries, and
it creates structural pressure on both governments to maintain the rivalry
rather than resolve it.
The Energy Dimension: Pipelines as Geopolitical
Weapons
Energy has become one of the most consequential arenas of the
Morocco-Algeria competition. In October 2021, Algeria declined to renew the
contract for the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline, which had carried Algerian gas
through Morocco to Spain since 1996. The decision cut Morocco out of transit
revenues and signalled that Algeria was willing to use energy infrastructure as
a diplomatic instrument.[6]
The two countries are now backing competing pipeline projects that run
through the heart of West Africa. Algeria has revived the Trans-Saharan Gas
Pipeline, a 4,128-kilometre project designed to carry up to 30 billion cubic
metres of Nigerian gas annually through Niger and Algeria to European markets.
In early 2026, Algeria's President Tebboune met with Niger's military leader
and committed to the pipeline's immediate relaunch, a move designed directly to
counter Morocco's positioning.[7]
Morocco, for its part, is championing the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline,
an Atlantic-facing project that would carry Nigerian gas along the West African
coastline to Morocco and then to Europe via existing Spain-Morocco
infrastructure. Morocco also launched the Atlantic Initiative in 2023,
positioning itself as a transit hub and logistics gateway for landlocked
Sahelian states seeking access to Atlantic trade routes.[3]
"Morocco and Algeria are pursuing
distinct, calculated strategies to position themselves as dominant powers. In
doing so, they risk exporting their rivalry to already volatile regions like
the Sahel." - EST Think Tank, July 2025
The Carnegie Endowment's July 2025 analysis frames this well: both
countries are now using trade and the energy sector to project power, forge new
alliances, and engage in strong-arm tactics against European governments.
Spain, caught between Algerian gas supply and Moroccan migration cooperation,
has consistently found itself squeezed. France, which backed Morocco's Western
Sahara position in 2024, found Algeria boycotting French wheat in 2025.[3]
The Sahel Dimension: Where the Competition Gets
Dangerous
Perhaps the most consequential arena of the Morocco-Algeria rivalry in
2025 and 2026 is the Sahel. The region's instability has created a vacuum that
both countries are trying to fill, with very different approaches and very
different alignments.
Algeria has historically positioned itself as a mediator in Sahelian
conflicts, having brokered peace agreements in Mali and maintained
relationships across the region. But its influence has been eroding. Algeria
opposes the presence of Russian Wagner and Africa Corps fighters in the Sahel,
a stance that has damaged its relationships with the military juntas in Mali,
Burkina Faso, and Niger. By early 2026, Algeria had been largely sidelined from
the Alliance of Sahel States.[1]
Morocco has moved to capitalise on that opening. The Atlantic Initiative
gives Sahelian states an alternative trade corridor. Morocco has been
strengthening bilateral ties with West African governments and positioning
itself as a partner for countries that want access to Atlantic markets rather
than Mediterranean routes controlled by Algeria. The irony is that Morocco and
the junta-led AES states are unlikely bedfellows politically. But shared
interest in countering Algeria's influence has created a working alignment.[3]
Algeria tried to form a competing regional bloc with Tunisia and Libya in
2024, holding a high-level tripartite summit in Tunis as a direct counterweight
to Moroccan influence. But that bloc remains weak and internally divided.
Libya's fractured governance makes it an unreliable partner, and Tunisia's
economic difficulties limit its strategic capacity.[8]
The Cost of the Frozen Conflict
The Morocco-Algeria standoff has real costs that are measured in more
than military budgets. The LSE Africa blog's September 2025 analysis puts it
plainly: the bilateral standoff affects broader African development
aspirations. The two countries together represent significant economic weight
in North Africa, and their inability to cooperate limits what is achievable on
the continent.[4]
The Arab Maghreb Union, the regional integration body established in
1989, has been effectively non-functional for three decades precisely because
of this rivalry. A functioning Maghreb economic community could generate
enormous benefits for both countries through trade, infrastructure, and joint
energy development. Instead, both governments invest in an arms race that
serves neither population.
The Middle East Institute's November 2025 analysis argues that
reconciliation between the two countries is both possible and in both
countries' strategic interest, but that it requires a dual narrative that
allows both governments to claim domestic victory from the same agreement. That
is a genuinely hard diplomatic problem. Neither the Moroccan monarchy nor the
Algerian military leadership can afford to be seen as backing down.[1]
The
Morocco-Algeria rivalry is not going to be resolved by external pressure or by
the logic of economic interest alone. It has become embedded in both countries'
domestic politics, military planning, energy strategy, and regional diplomacy.
Resolving it would require political courage from two governments that have
both built legitimacy partly on the rivalry itself. That is a difficult thing
to ask. But the alternative is a North Africa that continues to divert its
enormous human and natural resources into a competition that serves the
strategic interests of external powers far more than it serves the 85 million
Moroccans and Algerians who live with its consequences.
REFERENCES
[1]
Middle East Institute (2025, November). Morocco-Algeria: The Case
for Ambitious Reconciliation [Algeria severed ties Aug 2021; Algeria isolated
from AES; Morocco $13bn defence budget 2025; US Massad Boulos visit Algiers
July 2025; dual narrative needed]. https://mei.edu/publication/morocco-algeria-case-ambitious-reconciliation/
[2]
Middle East Institute (2025, November). Morocco and Algeria’s
Regional Rivalry Is About to Go into Overdrive [Sand War 1963; Green March
1975; Polisario Front; Guerguerat November 2020; Algeria severs ties August
2021; drone use]. https://mei.edu/publication/morocco-and-algerias-regional-rivalry-about-go-overdrive/
[3]
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2025, July). Economic
Statecraft as Geopolitical Strategy: New Dimensions of Moroccan-Algerian
Rivalry [France Morocco $11.6bn investment 2024; Algeria boycotts French wheat
2025; Atlantic Initiative; Tunis tripartite summit Algeria-Tunisia-Libya April
2024]. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/07/economic-statecraft-as-geopolitical-strategy-moroccan-algerian-rivalry?lang=en
[4]
LSE Africa at LSE (2025, September). Morocco and Algeria’s
Deteriorating Relationship Is Holding North Africa Back [Algeria $18.5bn
defence; Morocco $9.6bn sterling / $13bn; SIPRI ~90% of North Africa spending;
Algeria visa requirements Sept 2024; Arab Maghreb Union non-functional]. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2025/09/08/morocco-and-algerias-deteriorating-relationship-is-holding-north-africa-back/
[5]
EST Think Tank (2025, July). Morocco and Algeria: A Strategic
Rivalry Shaping the Maghreb [US major non-NATO ally Morocco; Abraham Accords
Israel-Morocco; Russian arms Algeria; Morocco drone strikes Polisario; Gulf
support Morocco]. https://esthinktank.com/2025/07/31/morocco-and-algeria-a-strategic-rivalry-shaping-the-maghreb/
[6]
CIDOB Barcelona Centre for International Affairs. Escalating Rivalry
Between Algeria and Morocco Closes the Maghreb-Europe Pipeline [Pipeline
operated since 1996; Algeria declined renewal October 2021; Spain realignment;
energy decoupling; Russia China growing presence]. https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/escalating-rivalry-between-algeria-and-morocco-closes-maghreb-europe-pipeline
[7]
Times of Israel Blogs (2026, February). The Sahel Thaw: Algeria’s
Pipeline Gambit to Sideline Morocco and Defy the US [Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline
4,128km; 30bn m3/year; $13bn cost vs $25bn Morocco route; Algeria-Niger
reconciliation 2026; AES energy corridor]. https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-sahel-thaw-algerias-pipeline-gambit-to-sideline-morocco-and-defy-the-u-s/
[8]
Al Majalla (2025). Algeria-Morocco Rivalry Is Alive and Well and
Focused on Africa [Trans-Saharan Road Lagos-Algiers; Morocco Atlantic
Initiative competing; Algeria Tunisia Libya Tunis bloc April 2024; AU politics;
OCP global investments]. https://en.majalla.com/node/316881/politics/algeria-morocco-rivalry-alive-and-well-and-focused-africa
[9]
Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The Energy Geopolitics of
North Africa [Spain Algeria gas dependency; Spain realignment Morocco 2022;
Italy-Algeria Eni Sonatrach joint venture; Morocco-Nigeria pipeline European
supply implications]. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/energy-geopolitics-north-africa
[10]
Yabiladi (2025, July). Morocco and Algeria Rivalry Expands into
Energy and Trade Spheres, Says US Think Tank [Carnegie analysis; migration
statecraft; Spain Morocco 2022; France Morocco 2024; rival pipeline
strategies]. https://en.yabiladi.com/articles/details/172486/morocco-algeria-rivalry-expands-into.html
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